Economic Update: Upbeat

According to a poll released on September 1 by the Siena Research Institute, New York State consumer confidence increased 4.8 percent in August to 69.1 percent, higher than the nation's overall 65.7 percent confidence.
In a statement, Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and the SRI founding director, said "the overall index of consumer confidence is the highest it's been in New York in 20 months. Although a majority of New Yorkers continue to expect tough economic times this year, the scourge of pessimism is now in the retreat. The future is looking especially bright to Democrats, [residents of] New York City, and the young. But, this time a recovery could look different as growing confidence has not yet opened the buying flood gates. Despite the Cash for Clunkers and other initiatives, consumers are not convinced that this is the time to buy big ticket items."
The poll showed that, in August, buying plans were up for computers, but down for vehicles, furniture, homes and major home improvements. However the poll also revealed that consumers are less worried about the price of gasoline, a huge change from one year ago.
"Concern about high gas prices took a healthy fall this month for the first time in a year and a half. Fewer than 50 percent of New Yorkers are seriously affected by pump prices. And the grocery bill, little change there as over six in 10 continue to cringe at the register," Lonnstrom added.
In Saratoga Springs, August has been a great month with tourism and traffic downtown. Even the housing market is starting to take a positive turn.
According to Steven Towne of Roohan Realty, both national and regional trends are beginning to head in a "more traditioal pattern."
"We know that we are getting more calls and inquiries - activity is on the rise and we are monitoring these trends," he said. "Saratoga Springs is an attractive location in the summer with the racetrack and other tourist destinations, seeds get planted in people's minds when they are here. The winter is traditionally slower for home sales in any economy."
In general, new construction for homes has been conservative, Towne said. Established neighborhoods and properties seem to be more attractive and development slowed during the economic downfall.
"If there aren't buyers in the market for new homes, development won't happen. Resale of homes is bouncing back much faster than new construction," Towne added.
Federal tax credits up to $8,000 are available to first-time home-owners; however the program ends on December 1.
The New York State Department of Labor released unemployment rates on August 20, show that the rate for Saratoga County has dropped to 6.3 percent in July from 6.7 percent in June. The state-wide unemployment rate is 8.6 percent in July, from June's 8.7 percent.
For Charles Wait, president of Adirondack Trust, all of the recent news of the economy is positive.
"I'm seeing people come into the bank with smiles on their faces, and that, to me, is a huge change," he said. "People seem to be pleased with the summer season and we are all looking ahead to what GlobalFoundries will bring to our area."
As for the City of Saratoga Springs, a recent drop in sales tax in the month of June could possibly lead to a $200,000 shortfall in the budget.
"The numbers released did not include July or August's numbers, and June was a slow month for business," said Ken Ivins, commissioner of finance for the city. The data for July and August won't be available until sometime in October.
August is a bigger month for sales tax than the holidays," Ivins added. "We can't make any conclusions until we get that number, but there are a lot of good things happening that could increase sales tax and help to close that budget gap."
Among those things is the start of construction at Luther Forest Technology Campus.
"GlobalFoundries won't have an immediate effect on the area, but the new construction and people coming to this area gives us a good outlook," Ivins said.