{"id":16137,"date":"2015-01-07T19:03:35","date_gmt":"2015-01-08T00:03:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.saratoga.com\/saratogabusinessjournal\/2015\/01\/economic-outlook-2015---paul-l-dowen.html"},"modified":"2015-01-07T19:03:35","modified_gmt":"2015-01-08T00:03:35","slug":"economic-outlook-2015-paul-l-dowen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.saratoga.com\/saratogabusinessjournal\/2015\/01\/economic-outlook-2015-paul-l-dowen\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Outlook 2015 – Paul L. Dowen"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"pauldowen.jpg\"\n<\/div>\n
Paul L. Dowen, CPA, Whittemore, Dowen and Ricciardelli LLP.\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

BY PAUL L. DOWEN<\/p>\n

From an economic standpoint, 2014, although
\nnot stellar, was definitely a better year than some
\nof its predecessors. I am optimistic about the year
\nthat lies ahead. Increased employment and lower
\nenergy costs create an increase in consumer spending,
\nwhich drives business and will in turn increase
\nbusiness spending.<\/p>\n

There are soft signals from the Fed that interest
\nrates may increase slightly also suggesting a
\nrenewed level of confidence in our economy. While
\nthere are many wild cards in the mix, we are poised
\nfor continued modest growth in 2015.<\/p>\n

The recent economic climate has changed the
\nway many companies do business. Survival mode
\nforged stronger companies with more effective
\nmanagement and controls.<\/p>\n

Our clients are concentrating
\non their core profit centers and have
\nshed less productive (profitable) activities. Their
\nfocus has shifted to leaner operations with an eye
\non continual improvement. As the economy grows,
\nbusiness will expand to meet growing demand, and
\nthey will benefit by increased efficiencies adopted
\nto survive.<\/p>\n

The labor market will improve for job seekers,
\nlowering the unemployment rate. Employers will
\nnot only need to compete to hire top talent but
\ncould struggle to retain existing employees. Competition
\nwill help drive wage and benefit increases.<\/p>\n

Increased levels of employment and higher wages
\nwill result in higher discretionary income, helping
\nspur the economy.<\/p>\n

Falling crude prices have had many favorable
\nimpacts on our economy. Lower prices at the pump
\nleave more money for discretionary purchases
\nwhich increase consumer demand. Businesses
\nrealize savings in transportation costs, petroleum
\nbased materials, and overall utility savings, freeing
\nup capital for investment. In addition, falling gas
\nprices should help keep inflation low.<\/p>\n

However, prolonged falling prices for crude
\ncould ultimately have a negative impact on the
\nstock market, as well as the economy as a whole.
\nI expect our economy to benefit from lower pump
\nprices well into 2015, but expect to see some market
\ncorrection before year-end as producers reduce
\nsupply when it is no longer profitable.<\/p>\n

The Fed has been subtly indicating by omitting
\n“considerable time” language that they will increase
\ninterest rates in the coming year. This increase will
\nbe contingent on continued economic improvement
\nand the degree of inflation. For borrowers this
\nincrease will ultimately increase interest expense.<\/p>\n

For businesses considering long term borrowing,
\nthe potential increase should be factored into the
\nplanning process. Increased interest rates are also
\nexpected to fuel foreign investment in the United
\nStates. While the increase will be gradual, we
\nshould anticipate higher interest rates in the future.<\/p>\n

Local issues that will have a direct impact on our
\nlocal economy include expansion of casino gambling,
\nStart-Up NY tax-free business development
\nzones, and the New York state hydraulic fracturing
\nban. Both the casino and fracking issues have been
\ncontentious, but with the decisions comes resolution and the ability to move forward.<\/p>\n

The approval of three multi-million dollar
\ncasino projects in New York state will generate
\nconstruction jobs in the area and increased demand
\nfor materials in the coming year. Ultimately the
\nprojects will create permanent hospitality career
\nopportunities as well as supporting business opportunities
\nin the surrounding regions. The casinos
\nwill increase tax and licensing revenues which will
\nhelp revitalize the struggling communities chosen.<\/p>\n

Agree or disagree, the ban on hydraulic fracturing
\n(“fracking”) in New York state carries economic
\nconsequences for this region. States with fracking
\nhave benefited from both jobs and revenue. New
\nYork’s desire to create more environmentally conservative
\ngrowth is admirable, but will likely not
\nresult in any immediate favorable impact in 2015.<\/p>\n

SUNY Adirondack was approved as tax-free
\nzone through Start-Up NY. This designation was
\nestablished to attract qualified businesses to
\nupstate New York. While SUNY Adirondack is one
\nof many approved zones within the state, the zero
\ntax concept will offer a competitive advantage over
\nother states in enticing businesses to relocate to
\nour region.<\/p>\n

The impact of the recent national elections is
\nstill a wild card. At this time last year, I was hopeful
\nthat 2013’s last minute budget deal signaled
\na beginning of compromise and good governing.
\nUnfortunately that wasn’t the case in 2014.<\/p>\n

I am again hopeful that our elected officials will
\nget back to the business of governing. The upcoming
\nterm will prove interesting for the nation as the
\nnew majority will need to figure out not only how to
\ncompromise with the minority and the President,
\nbut how to build consensus with it’s own divided
\nconstituency to achieve results.<\/p>\n

I am optimistic for 2015, slightly more optimistic
\nthan last year, although I haven’t yet reached a
\nlevel which could be described as excited. All the
\nsigns suggest that 2015 will continue the positive
\ntrends we experienced last year. As the economy
\nstrengthens, the positive effects will help perpetuate
\nthe momentum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Paul L. Dowen, CPA, Whittemore, Dowen and Ricciardelli LLP. BY PAUL L. DOWEN From an economic standpoint, 2014, although not stellar, was definitely a better year than some of its predecessors. I am optimistic about the year that lies…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121,"featured_media":21076,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[57],"class_list":["post-16137","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-news","tag-business-news"],"yoast_head":"\r\nEconomic Outlook 2015 - Paul L. 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