{"id":28559,"date":"2015-01-07T19:02:36","date_gmt":"2015-01-08T00:02:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.saratoga.com\/saratogabusinessjournal\/2015\/01\/economic-outlook-2015---stephen-kyne.html"},"modified":"2015-01-07T19:02:36","modified_gmt":"2015-01-08T00:02:36","slug":"economic-outlook-2015-stephen-kyne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.saratoga.com\/saratogabusinessjournal\/2015\/01\/economic-outlook-2015-stephen-kyne\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Outlook 2015 – Stephen Kyne"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"steve\n<\/div>\n
Stephen Kyne, partner, Sterling Manor Financial LLC\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

BY STEPHEN KYNE<\/p>\n

The year 2014 had its share of distractions, at
\nhome and abroad. The Ukraine, ISIS, Ebola, riots,
\nmid-term elections, lost airliners, the end of “stimulus”,
\nand immigration, to name just a few, all had a
\nshort-term effect on the markets. In spite of all of
\nthem, however, U.S. markets still managed a banner
\nyear. This is confirmation, once again, that the U.S.
\neconomic recovery is real.<\/p>\n

With negative GDP figures in the first quarter,
\nthe year had a bumpy start. The decline was largely
\nattributed to the severe winter weather experienced
\nby much of the nation. With recent revisions to third
\nquarter GDP showing 5 percent annualized growth,
\nwe expect 2014 US economic growth to come in just
\nshy of 3 percent when all is said and done. Looking
\ntoward 2015, we expect the economic expansion to
\ncontinue, and for GDP to continue growing at about
\nthree percent.<\/p>\n

We expected inflation to remain historically low,
\nand the 2014 Consumer Price Index (CPI) to come
\nin around 2 percent. However, due to lowering
\nenergy costs, attributed largely to increased U.S.
\nproduction, we now expect CPI to register around 1.3
\npercent for the year. We expect to see energy prices
\nrebound modestly through 2015, which should be
\nreflected in an inflation rate of around two percent
\nin the year to come.<\/p>\n

Once again, gold, often considered a hedge
\nagainst inflation, should not see much price appreciation
\nin the year to come, and may actually
\ncontinue decreasing in value.<\/p>\n

After experiencing an increase of 30 percent
\nin 2013, the S&P continues to break records. We
\nprojected an increase of 15 percent for the S&P in
\n2014, and the year-to-date increase as of Dec. 29 was
\nover 13 percent.<\/p>\n

There are many perennially wrong naysayers
\npointing to this increase as proof of a stock market
\nbubble, however with valuations still in the range of
\n15-17 times earnings, we feel that U.S. stocks continue
\nto be fairly valued. As companies continue to
\nreport record earnings, we see more room for price
\nappreciation. While we expect the rate of U.S. stock
\nappreciation to slow, we think a ten percent increase
\nin the S&P is quite likely in the coming year.<\/p>\n

The end to the Fed’s bond buying, known as
\n“stimulus,” turned out to be a non-event. There are a
\ngreat many economic pessimists who had advanced
\nthe notion that the economy had been propped up
\nby the activities of the Fed, and were proved wrong
\nas the U.S. economy continues to post record figures
\neven after the end of stimulus.<\/p>\n

We expect that in mid-2015, the Fed will begin
\nto raise interest rates. With rates effectively at zero
\nsince 2008, and stimulus at an end, it’s only a matter
\nof time. While the initial reaction to this increase
\nmay weigh on U.S. stock markets, it may be wise to
\ntreat any dip as a buying opportunity, as we do not expect monetary policy to become tight in 2015, just
\nsimply less loose.<\/p>\n

Internationally, we see a varied landscape.
\nEuropean growth is being hampered by systemic
\nproblems. Some countries in the Eurozone should
\nsee improvement in the coming year, including
\nGermany and Spain, while others, including Italy,
\nwill be drag on the overall economic expansion. We
\nsee growth in the Eurozone in the 1 percent range
\nin 2015. The decrease in the value of the Euro, relative
\nto the U.S. dollar and British pound, should help
\nEurozone exporters by making their products less
\nexpensive on the global markets.<\/p>\n

Decreasing global energy prices should help
\nthe more developed, of the developing nations in
\nAsia, including South Korea, India and China. We
\nsee China’s growth rate slowing as it tackles issues
\nrelated to debt accumulation. India should show
\nan increase in its rate of growth as policy reforms
\nstemming from recent elections begin to take hold.<\/p>\n

Many of the Latin American countries continue
\nto wrestle with their economic problems, including
\nArgentina and Venezuela. Mexico, in spite of its
\nown issues, should be able to take advantage of the
\ncontinued U.S. recovery and may continue to show
\nimprovement.<\/p>\n

Domestically, we see the economy continuing
\nto improve, unemployment decreasing, inflation to
\nremain in-check, and U.S. stock investors benefiting.
\nOverall, we think 2015 will be another great year for
\nthe US economy.<\/p>\n

Of course, these are forward-looking statements,
\nand are based on information currently available.
\nAny new information could dramatically alter our
\nprojections, so be sure to consult with your financial
\nadvisor to ensure your investment strategy reflects
\nyour goals and any changes in the economic landscape.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Stephen Kyne, partner, Sterling Manor Financial LLC BY STEPHEN KYNE The year 2014 had its share of distractions, at home and abroad. 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