{"id":37372,"date":"2022-04-11T11:10:04","date_gmt":"2022-04-11T15:10:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.saratoga.com\/saratogabusinessjournal\/?p=37372"},"modified":"2022-04-11T11:10:04","modified_gmt":"2022-04-11T15:10:04","slug":"business-report-how-wide-is-your-perspective","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.saratoga.com\/saratogabusinessjournal\/2022\/04\/business-report-how-wide-is-your-perspective\/","title":{"rendered":"Business Report: How Wide Is Your Perspective?"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_37373\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-37373\" style=\"width: 212px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-37373\" src=\"https:\/\/www.saratoga.com\/saratogabusinessjournal\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/48\/2022\/04\/luttman-column-c-212x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"212\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.saratoga.com\/saratogabusinessjournal\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/48\/2022\/04\/luttman-column-c-212x300.jpg 212w, https:\/\/www.saratoga.com\/saratogabusinessjournal\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/48\/2022\/04\/luttman-column-c.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 212px) 100vw, 212px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-37373\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Steven Luttman, broker\/owner of SJ Lincoln Realty, host of The Expected Returns podcast.<br \/>Courtesy Steven Luttman<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>By Steven Luttman<\/p>\n<p>Few things warm my heart more than a trip to the Lake George outlets.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Some might say cheap, others prefer \u201cfinancially thoughtful,\u201d but no matter what you call it I like finding a good deal. No doubt many of you feel the same way. Think for a moment about a purchase you\u2019ve been considering recently.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>If this item were to become available for 79 percent less than its historical price how excited would that make you? That\u2019s an amazing value. People line up hours in advance for Black Friday deals less great than this. But before you take out your wallet, what if at this exact same time last month the item could be had for 85 percent off. Given that the discount has shrunk, is it still attractive today? Of course, it\u2019s a no brainer.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Freddie Mac\u2019s weekly lender survey found the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>closed out the month of March at 4.67 percent, a sizable jump from the sub 3 percent we were seeing as recently as November.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>For anyone that\u2019s been eyeing a home purchase or refinance it\u2019s easy to think \u201cI\u2019ve dropped the ball here, rates are just way too high now\u201d. With a short term perspective you wouldn\u2019t be wrong. However if you were to line up the average rate for every single week over the past 50 years, rates are lower today than they\u2019ve been for almost 80 percent of those data points since 1971.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>The rise in borrowing costs we\u2019ve seen in 2022 can be attributed primarily to the Federal Reserve, who in an effort to combat inflation recently announced their first increase to the target Fed Funds rate since 2018. While Chairman Powell can influence short term yields via monetary policy, longer dated maturities are dictated more so by the buying and selling of Treasuries done by investors. It\u2019s the latter that drives mortgage rates.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"s1\"><span class=\"s2\"><!--more--><\/span><\/span>Advisory firm MCT stated the historical spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the national average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is a touch under 2 percent. Contrast that with the roughly 2.25 percent gap today and one could make the argument this year\u2019s run up in home loan rates is a bit over heated.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>While mortgage rates often get the headlines, the true culprit of decreasing affordability is the lack of housing supply. A healthy real estate market is generally defined as having six months of available inventory, meaning if not a single additional home were listed for sale it would take six months for buyers to absorb the current stock.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>According to GCAR we currently sit at 1.3 months, an all-time low for the Capital Region. This unfortunately will not be a quick fix, and will require a collaborative effort between the private and public sector. Items most needing to be addressed are restrictive zoning policies by municipalities as well as a lack of skilled laborers among others.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Home builders took a sizable hit during the great recession, many going out of business or choosing to pursue other career paths. The consequence today is that new home starts (newly built homes) will end the year somewhere near levels of the mid 1990s, a time when our country had 75 million less citizens.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Some good news is that all of this is happening during a time when wages are increasing at a pace not seen in many employees\u2019 lifetimes. 2021 saw average salaries rise 4.5 percent according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and experts anticipate a similar albeit slightly less bump this year. Rising pay for many households should offset much of the pain simultaneous increases in cost and borrowing expenses associated with buying a home has created.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Did you miss the bottom? Almost certainly yes. It\u2019s hard to envision an environment conducive to that sizable of a retreat. However, let\u2019s not be in the business of trying to time financial markets. That\u2019s for day traders and that sounds exhausting.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>But just like me loading up on cardigans at an end of season sale, we want to recognize value when presented with it. Borrowing costs in 2022 are still a good deal.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Steven Luttman Few things warm my heart more than a trip to the Lake George outlets.\u00a0 Some might say cheap, others prefer \u201cfinancially thoughtful,\u201d but no matter what you call it I like finding a good deal. No doubt many of you feel the same way. Think for a moment about a purchase you\u2019ve [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":89,"featured_media":37373,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-reports"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\r\n<title>Business Report: How Wide Is Your Perspective? - Saratoga Business Journal<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.saratoga.com\/saratogabusinessjournal\/2022\/04\/business-report-how-wide-is-your-perspective\/\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Business Report: How Wide Is Your Perspective? - Saratoga Business Journal\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Steven Luttman Few things warm my heart more than a trip to the Lake George outlets.\u00a0 Some might say cheap, others prefer \u201cfinancially thoughtful,\u201d but no matter what you call it I like finding a good deal. 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