{"id":41343,"date":"2026-02-16T16:43:23","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T21:43:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.saratoga.com\/saratogabusinessjournal\/?p=41343"},"modified":"2026-02-16T16:43:23","modified_gmt":"2026-02-16T21:43:23","slug":"tax-policy-chips-jobs-fuel-optimism-at-saratoga-county-economic-outlook-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.saratoga.com\/saratogabusinessjournal\/2026\/02\/tax-policy-chips-jobs-fuel-optimism-at-saratoga-county-economic-outlook-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Tax Policy, Chips, Jobs Fuel Optimism At Saratoga County Economic Outlook 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
Ben Chuckrow (right), Stifel senior vice president, investments and branch manager, discusses local and national trends during a 2026 Economic Outlook as Charles Wait Jr (left) and Dave DeMarco (center) look on.
Paul Post photo<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

By Paul Post<\/p>\n

Federal tax refunds from President Trump\u2019s One Big Beautiful Bill are expected to be $150 billion higher this spring, helping all kinds of business as people purchase everything from lawn tractors to new homes.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s what keynote speaker Robert Doll said during a recent 2026 Economic Outlook program hosted by Saratoga County Chamber of Commerce at the Excelsior Springs Event Center with more than 100 attendees on hand.<\/p>\n

The bill, which the president signed into law last July 4, includes tax deductions for tips, overtime pay, auto loans, and creates Trump accounts allowing parents to create tax-deferred accounts for their children, all set to expire in 2028.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s real money and creates a tailwind for consumption,\u201d said Doll, CEO of Houston-based Crossmark Global Investments. \u201cThe economy is improving. Economic growth in the United States in 2026 will be 50 basis points higher than it was in 2025 and there\u2019s nothing embarrassing about 2025.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/span><\/b><\/span><\/span>\u201cWe are using the phrase high-risk bull market to describe where we think we are,\u201d he said. \u201cThe bull market part says the path of least resistance is up. The two conditions, in my judgment, for that to continue number one, are that earnings estimates keep drifting higher. That\u2019s certainly been the case so far.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe second condition is the Fed, that it remains at worst neutral or constructively positive, meaning they talk about cutting rates, not raising rates,\u201d Doll said. \u201cThose two things have powered the market higher now for some time and are necessary conditions for things to repeat for a continued a bull market. The high-risk part says be careful. If one of those things comes unglued or something negative gets in the way, like we saw a year ago with tariffs, the high-risk part is engaged. Those things need to be watched carefully.\u201d<\/p>\n

His talk was followed by a panel discussion featuring local business and economic analysts \u2013<\/p>\n

Adirondack Trust President and CEO Charles Wait Jr; Arrow Bank President and CEO Dave DeMarco;Ben Chuckrow, Stifel senior vice president, investments and branch manager; and Martin Shields, Bouchey Financial Group chief wealth advisor and shareholder.<\/p>\n

Panelists concurred with Doll\u2019s favorable economic projections, including Saratoga County and the greater Capital Region. \u201cTax refunds are truly going to have an impact on what we do as a community bank from auto sales, residential sales and local small business,\u201d DeMarco said. Doing business in New York state is really challenging, yet despite that we continue to see new business opening.\u201d<\/p>\n

He specifically cited recent groundbreaking for a $100 million new Micron semiconductor plant near Syracuse, continued nanotech investments in Albany, and plans for a second GlobalFoundries plant in Malta as projects driving the upstate economy.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s all building growth in the region,\u201d DeMarco said.<\/p>\n

Wait pointed out that diversity led by the technology, manufacturing and tourism\/hospitality sectors give the region a resilient economic base. \u201cWe don\u2019t experience the high highs, we also don\u2019t experience the low lows,\u201d he said. \u201cJust maintaining that steady growth is one of the benefits we have in this area, which makes it such a great place to be.\u201d<\/p>\n

Wait said his optimism is also fueled by sales tax and hospitality numbers, which are on a growth trend. From 2022 to 2025, sales tax collections in the county increased 13 percent with a gain of roughly $20.8 million. This includes a 5.8 percent from 2024 to 2025 when collections totaled more than $181 million.<\/p>\n

Likewise, lodging facilities say revenue per available room rose 18.1 percent the past four years, which includes a nearly 3 percent from 2024 ($137.53) to 2025 ($141.51). The supply of available rooms increased 5.2 percent the last two years with the opening of new hotels to keep pace with growing demand (4.3 percent).<\/p>\n

Chuckrow said GlobalFoundries has already received $6.1 billion in federal funding, which will help with company\u2019s proposed expansion plans in Malta.\u00a0 <\/span>\u201cThey\u2019re expected to hire 1000 to 1500 new employees over the next five to six years,\u201d he said. \u201cThe construction jobs they\u2019re projected to need to build out the new foundry or foundries is about 9000.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd as our need for chips as a result of AI, and GlobalFoundries being the largest pure chip manufacturing company in the United States, I can\u2019t see how this area can\u2019t grow; but also grow its tax base because employees coming to this area are going to be higher salaried employees,\u201d he said. \u201cWe\u2019re also going to have lots for kids graduating from our great local community colleges so I couldn\u2019t be more optimistic about the growth of Saratoga.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cRight now we are in a very, very good environment for the US economy,\u201d Chuckrow said. \u201cI don\u2019t see anything, barring any exogenous event, that really should derail it.\u201d<\/p>\n

But he said AI is still an unknown quantity with regard to its impact on the economy, both nationally and locally.<\/p>\n

\u201cI remember the early Nineties when the Internet was first starting,\u201d he said. \u201cWe didn\u2019t know what it was going to do. The Internet, I believe, is what caused inflation to go negative, which is a really bad thing because if there\u2019s no inflation and you need to buy something and you know the price is going to be cheaper tomorrow, you aren\u2019t going to buy it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Similarly, Chuckrow believes AI will have the same kind of effect by making it much easier for people to compare prices and find the least expensive item almost instantaneously. \u201cAI is going to bring down inflation the exact same way,\u201d Chuckrow said. \u201cI think it\u2019s going to be both good and bad.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cCertainly it\u2019s (AI) becoming more and more a part of our business and will change the way not only our banks run, but a lot of other business,\u201d DeMarco said.<\/p>\n

In addition to Saratoga Springs\u2019 extremely vibrant downtown, increasingly strong urban centers such as Troy, Schenectady and Glens Falls are fueling outward growth. \u201cEverything flows from there,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The Capital Region\u2019s median salary is the highest in upstate New York, he said, adding that \u201cwe have the highest level of college graduates compared to other upstate cities and much of the U.S.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you\u2019re going to start a business, tell me what country you\u2019d rather be in than the United States,\u201d Shields said. \u201cWe\u2019ve got challenges, but it\u2019s still the best place to start a business. I think that\u2019s the case here as well. It\u2019s really hard not to be positive about his area.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Paul Post Federal tax refunds from President Trump\u2019s One Big Beautiful Bill are expected to be $150 billion higher this spring, helping all kinds of business as people purchase everything from lawn tractors to new homes. That\u2019s what keynote speaker Robert Doll said during a recent 2026 Economic Outlook program hosted by Saratoga County […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":89,"featured_media":41344,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41343","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-news"],"yoast_head":"\r\nTax Policy, Chips, Jobs Fuel Optimism At Saratoga County Economic Outlook 2026 - Saratoga Business Journal<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.saratoga.com\/saratogabusinessjournal\/2026\/02\/tax-policy-chips-jobs-fuel-optimism-at-saratoga-county-economic-outlook-2026\/\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tax Policy, Chips, Jobs Fuel Optimism At Saratoga County Economic Outlook 2026 - Saratoga Business Journal\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Paul Post Federal tax refunds from President Trump\u2019s One Big Beautiful Bill are expected to be $150 billion higher this spring, helping all kinds of business as people purchase everything from lawn tractors to new homes. 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