By Stephen Kyne, CFP®, Sterling Manor Financial, LLC

I’ve been writing an annual economic outlook piece for the last fifteen years, and this year’s is by far the most difficult. As the largest and most diverse economy in the world, the US has immense potential, but there are serious headwinds which make a positive 2026 outlook anything but assured. 

I put a great deal of effort into writing from a purely economic perspective, but politics and the economy have become inextricably linked. 

For the first time since the Great Recession, the European markets grew faster than the United States’. Take it for what you will, but we view it largely as a flight of capital due to the perceived instability of the United States: ever-fluctuating trade policy, self-defeating immigration policies, inconsistent foreign policy, and now adventuring in regime change and serious discussions around the annexation of a fellow NATO member’s territory. Regardless of the long-term outcome, the perception of the United States as a stable and reliable trading partner and ally is in question, leading the international community to reassess its relationship to, and dependence on, the US.

We don’t expect the volatility to subside this year. First, consider that it’s becoming more likely that the democrats will take at least one house of Congress. That matters because it creates a shortened timeline for the administration to achieve some of its more controversial objectives. The resulting instability may serve to exacerbate the flight of capital to other markets and further erode the value of the dollar. 

The dollar index fell nearly 11% in 2025, which was the greatest decrease in over fifty years. A weaker dollar makes US goods less expensive in foreign markets, but it also makes foreign goods more expensive in the US. Combine that with price increases due to tariffs, and the trend of rising inflation could be likely to continue. 

By Renee Walrath, CEO, Walrath Recruiting, Inc

As we enter 2026, the Capital Region labor market continues to stand apart from larger metropolitan areas across New York state. Anchored by health care systems, state government, higher education, professional services and steady private-sector development, the regional economy remains fundamentally stable.

From my perspective as a recruiter specializing in accounting, finance, legal, manufacturing, construction and health care, the year ahead will not be defined by aggressive hiring or contraction. Instead, it will be shaped by measured growth, persistent skills gaps and data-driven workforce decisions.

The Capital Region enters 2026 with relatively low unemployment and moderate job growth. Hiring demand remains consistent, but employers are becoming increasingly selective. Organizations are scrutinizing roles more carefully, prioritizing positions that directly support revenue, compliance, operational efficiency and long-term growth.

This trend is particularly evident among mid-sized employers, health care organizations, construction firms and professional services companies. Hiring timelines have lengthened, approvals are more deliberate, and decision-makers are relying more heavily on market data and recruiter insight to guide compensation and role design.

While candidate availability has improved compared to prior years, the Capital Region continues to experience a mismatch between open roles and qualified talent. The most persistent challenges remain concentrated in specialized, technical and leadership positions.

By Doug Ford

Curtis Lumber Co. & Northeast Construction 

Trades Workforce Coalition

As we look ahead to 2026, the Saratoga, Warren, and Washington County region continues to stand out as one of the stronger construction markets in upstate New York. While 2025 delivered steady but cautious growth, the year ahead makes one thing increasingly clear: opportunity alone will not drive success. Our ability to meet demand, deliver projects, and sustain economic growth will depend largely on whether we have the workforce to do so.

Construction activity in 2025 reflected resilience across much of the region, even as growth came in slower than many originally anticipated. Residential development remained strongest in communities such as Saratoga Springs, Malta, and Clifton Park, where demand for multifamily housing, townhomes, and mixed-use projects continued to rise. Population growth, quality-of-life amenities, and proximity to employment centers helped support activity despite higher interest rates and a more disciplined lending environment.

At the same time, economic and political uncertainty caused some private projects to remain on the sidelines. Developers were more cautious, delaying starts while monitoring financing costs, regulatory conditions, and broader market signals. Tourism — particularly in the Saratoga market — continued to serve as a stabilizing force, driving renovation and expansion projects tied to hospitality, entertainment, and seasonal housing.

Beneath these market dynamics, however, a more pressing issue came into even sharper focus in 2025: the shortage of skilled labor. Across the construction trades, workforce availability increasingly dictated project schedules, costs, and overall capacity. While demand for construction services remained relatively stable, the lack of skilled workers limited how much work could realistically be delivered.

By Dorothy Rogers-Bullis

Founder & Principal, drb Business Interiors

Founder, Saratoga CoWorks

I know space.

I know it not as a trend, but as a force. A well-designed environment shapes behavior, influences culture, and directly impacts performance. When people are in good space, they think more clearly, collaborate more naturally, and show up with greater energy and purpose. When space is misaligned, even the strongest teams struggle.

At drb Business Interiors and Saratoga CoWorks, I see this play out every day. I watch businesses transform—not because they changed their mission or their people, but because they changed the environment in which work happens. Space, when done well, becomes a strategic advantage.

Over the last several years, nearly every business leader I speak with asks some version of the same question:

“How do we get people to want to be in the office again?”

After COVID, we experienced what many leaders quietly refer to as the office rebellion. Employees proved that work could happen elsewhere. Business owners and managers were forced to adapt quickly, often without the tools or frameworks to do so thoughtfully. The result was tension, experimentation, and in many cases, frustration on both sides.

By David M. Kopyc, CRPC, President of Retirement Planning Group LLC

As forecasts for 2026 take shape, the consensus view is cautiously optimistic. The U.S. economy is expected to remain resilient, supporting continued gains in both stock and bond markets, even as investors adjust to higher volatility and a gradual shift away from the AI-driven tech dominance of recent years.

Most economists anticipate a “soft landing” scenario in which the economy avoids recession, inflation continues to moderate—though remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target—and interest rates trend lower as the Fed continues cutting in response to a softening labor market.

For equity investors, Wall Street strategists are largely aligned in their outlook for another solid year. Major indexes such as the S&P 500 are projected to post double-digit gains, with year-end targets ranging roughly between 7,400 and 8,100. Strong corporate earnings growth, ongoing capital spending tied to artificial intelligence, and a generally market-friendly policy environment are expected to underpin the bull market’s momentum.

Artificial intelligence remains a central driver of growth, with expectations that S&P 500 earnings could rise 14 to 15 percent in 2026. At the same time, analysts expect market leadership to broaden. While mega-cap technology stocks have carried much of the rally to date, value stocks, small- and mid-cap companies, and international developed markets are increasingly viewed as more reasonably priced opportunities.

Underlying these projections is a steady economic backdrop. U.S. gross domestic product growth is forecast in the 2.0 to 2.4 percent range, supported by strong consumer spending and continued business investment.

By Sara Mannix, Founder & CEO of Mannix Marketing

As we look forward to 2026, the economic narrative is split. On one hand, many growth-minded businesses in the Saratoga and Glens Falls regions are entering the first quarter with record-breaking volume. On the other hand, a “wait-and-see” attitude has taken hold at the enterprise level, with major corporations slowing spending as they anticipate a potential market correction or the bursting of the “AI bubble.”

For local business owners, this contradiction represents a rare window of opportunity. While large-scale competitors hesitate, local businesses can use their agility to claim market share that’s currently being left on the table.

The data behind the “Downturn Dividend” tells a clear story. It is a common reflex to cut marketing budgets at the first sign of uncertainty. However, history proves this is often a brand’s most expensive mistake. Research into the 1981–82 recession found that businesses that maintained or increased their advertising saw sales growth 256% higher by the time the economy recovered than those that cut their budgets.

We saw a modern version of this “Downturn Dividend” right here in our own backyard during COVID-19 in 2020. While much of the country was closing its doors and going quiet, leaders in Lake George pushed forward to aggressively market the region as a safe outdoor destination. By being the first movers to lean into the uncertainty rather than retreat from it, Lake George outpaced all of its competitive markets that summer and the following summer.

When competitors go quiet, your share of voice becomes exponentially louder and cheaper to acquire. In 2026, marketing is not an expense to trim; it is the strategy that ensures you gain ground while others simply hope to survive.

By Assemblymember Carrie Woerner, 113th Assembly District

When asked to offer my perspective on trends in New York’s economy, I will say upfront that I am bullish on New York’s economy, and on our part of the Upstate economy particularly.  Which is not to say that there are not challenges we must confront and solve, but I am convinced that we have the necessary mix of talent, energy and commitment among the private and public sector to realize the potential that is 2026. 

The groundwork was laid for growth in 2026 with significant private sector investments in semiconductor and biomedical manufacturing, supply chains, and logistics.  Traditional industries like agriculture are also seeing investment with Chobani’s plans to construct a significant new production plant requiring milk from 1500 more cows that we currently have in the state.   Tourism remains a strong component of the upstate economy, and certainly Saratoga Springs and Lake George both had strong summer seasons. The start of the 250th Commemoration of our nation’s founding will drive heritage tourists to our area. While we don’t yet have the statistics for 2025, the number of small business openings exceeded the number of closings in 2024; as small businesses are the source of 98% of jobs statewide, this is a truly positive sign that our economy is strong.  In last year’s state budget, the Legislature and the Governor allocated funds to pay off the residual pandemic unemployment insurance debt to the federal government. That change is anticipated to save businesses about $250 per employee this year – dollars that businesses can now invest in growing their business.    

By State Sen. James Tedisco,  R–Glenville, 44th District

New York has an affordability problem.  We all know it.  

After being part of the problem for many years, it has finally dawned on our Governor that people can’t afford to live here.

It’s no wonder people are escaping New York in droves, leading the nation in out-migration.

Our previous governor blamed the exodus on the weather.  

Remember the 1990s hit “Blame it on the Rain”? We may get our share of precipitation in New York, but when 16 percent of people fleeing our state head for the “warm and balmy” state of New Jersey, you can’t credibly “blame it on the rain!”

One of my all-time favorite movies is the film classic “Casablanca” with Humphrey Bogart, Ingrid Bergman and Claude Rains, among a stellar cast.  

In a famous scene from the film, Claude Rains’ character, Captain Renault, expresses his mock outrage that there is gambling taking place at Humphrey Bogart’s establishment, saying “I’m shocked, shocked to find there’s gambling going on in here” as someone hands him his gambling winnings!

I was shocked that the Governor attempted to illustrate that she was “shocked” when she came out after being in charge for five years having super majorities in both houses and suddenly saying that we have an affordability problem in New York State!  

By J. Gregory Connors, President, CEO, Saratoga Economic Development Corporation

Building on the economic development investments, job creation, and job retention successes achieved in 2025, Saratoga Economic Development Corporation is positioned to expand that momentum in 2026. Saratoga County offers a strong product to market and promote and is recognized across the region, state, nation, and world for its blend of history, thriving communities, one of the lowest tax structures in the state, and a collaborative, cooperative environment among government, business, and community development stakeholders.

The county’s labor market is expected to remain strong, continuing the momentum of recent years. The Capital Region benefits from a diverse workforce, low unemployment compared to state averages, and a growing population. Job growth is projected to continue in healthcare, tourism, advanced manufacturing, agriculture, and the equine industries. Continued investment in workforce development will be critical, with local educational institutions and training programs playing a key role in preparing residents for emerging full-time job opportunities.

Several key sectors are expected to drive economic growth. The healthcare sector is anticipated to expand, fueled by population growth and aging demographics. New facilities under construction and in the planning stages, combined with ongoing innovation, are expected to create additional jobs and attract new investment. Advanced manufacturing and technology will remain a major economic driver, supported by the county’s proximity to high-tech corridors, the presence of GlobalFoundries in Malta/Stillwater, and a growing network of related supply-chain businesses.

Tourism and hospitality will continue to be a cornerstone of the local economy. Internationally recognized attractions such as Saratoga Race Course, Saratoga Performing Arts Center, and Saratoga National Historical Park—playing a role in the nation’s 250th anniversary—will continue to draw visitors from around the world. The hospitality industry is expected to expand further, supported by increased travel demand and tourism-related spending. Agriculture and the equine industry also remain vital, with local farms adopting sustainable practices and agritourism initiatives that support rural economic vitality.